Monday, November 10, 2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Pander Pander!

This whole gas tax nonsense shows just how craven Clinton & McCain really are.

If voters reward them for this crap, then we deserve crapy leadership:

Saturday, April 26, 2008

General Election Polls Suck and Here's Why

One of the things I don't think the media folks have articulated properly is the ramifications of Hillary wrestling the nomination away from Obama.

From my vantage point, Obama has the "cleanest" path to the nomination. He is leading in the most important yardstick for voters to understand, the pledged delegate count. This is how the system is set up. His argument for the nomination is easy to understand and extremely logical for the regular voter to figure out. Hillary is attempting to cloud the picture with her talk of the "popular vote". For her it brings back memories of 2000, which still makes dems like me wince. I totally understand why she is trying to make this new argument on a theoretical level, but it is clear that the pledged delegate lead is the cleanest argument by far. That is why his argument never changes, and hers does with each primary vote.

So, by this measure, the nomination clearly is Obama's to lose. He will absolutely end the primary season with the most pledged delegates and therefore, his claim to the nomination will make sense to voters sense of fair play. He won by the yardstick that was in place at he beginning of the process. It will make sense to the average voter.

So when I see Hillary trotting out polls showing that she does better in certain states (Ohio, PA) than Obama, what the press never seems to mention is that her path to the nomination is much more difficult and fraught with peril for the Democratic Party. Any scenario that gives her the nomination (other than discovering photos of Obama with a naked teenage boy) will without question involve undermining the expressed will of the voters of the primary season. Her path is the one that will create the riots on the streets of Denver. His path does not.

So assume for a moment that she manages to snatch the nomination from Obama under these circumstances. It will essentially destroy the Democratic Party. Black voters (one of the bases of the party), young voters (also known as the future of the party), and very possibly the "upscale educated" voters (that would be us) will leave the party in droves. No Democrat can get elected without these groups.

No polling with her numbers in a general takes into account her destructive path to the nomination. That is one of the huge flaws of her campaign right now. She trots out her arguments of "electability" but the linchpin of her path involves undermining the expressed will of voters. No polling asks these questions. And therefore these polls mean less than nothing until they factor in her only path to become the nominee.

Friday, April 25, 2008

You clicked here. Thank You!

Yep. Another one of those periodic outages that have no excuse.

Stay tuned. More in a bit.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Stealing Bush's backdrops

Just noticed that Hillary is stealing those backdrops that Bush uses when he is giving a speech. The big theme of the speech is repeated as wallpaper behind him to let the viewer know what he's talking about.

See what I mean?

Friday, March 21, 2008

Today's Picture worth a thousand words

Two people, one the child of a white American and a Mexican, and the other, the child of a Kenyan and a white American.
One thing you could say about these two if they ran together, they would have all the electoral bases covered!!

Nice end to a tough week.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

MSNBC's interesting choice of messenger!

I must say that I find it highly amusing that MSNBC trots out Pat Buchanan to discuss race relations in the wake of Obama's speech yesterday. you know, this Pat Buchanan, the one who gave this speech:

Sunday, February 24, 2008

This is what Desperation looks like

The sports metaphor is so horribly overused, so let's add to the pantheon.

When your team is down by 2 scores with 2 minutes to go, you start with the trick plays and the Hail Mary passes. There is a reason we have seen the Doug Flutie pass a million times.

This is a little different, because when a team is down by 6 runs going into the 9th inning, they often just try and get the game over with. But if they have a whiff of a chance, you often see guys trying to hit a 6 run homerun.

Pulling the goalie (also a sexual reference which is not applicable here)

The Clinton campaign pulled the goalie yesterday:

Monday, February 18, 2008

This is what class looks like

I've always been a Yankee hater and I always will. But I have also always had a soft spot for Andy Pettitte, especially after he suffered outrageous treatment in the press by Yankee owner George Steinbrenner, who publicly threatened to trade him (right - a then under 30 year old lefty!) in the middle of a subpar season. His performance in Game 3 of the ALDS against my team, the Indians, was staggering, and he didn't deserve his fate that night.

Today he made a public statement about the allegations of him using HGH. And unlike the bellicose and defensive Roger Clemens, Andy was nothing but class. A real person takes responsibility for their actions, and Andy did just that today.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Life in the Snow isn't so bad

I got to spend a little chunk of time today in our very snowy, hilly yard on a very cheap sled with Grace today. We traversed every possible hill that was negotiable on our property without killing ourselves and she even made a snow angel for me as an exclamation point on our little outing.

Sarah got a much needed break from the brand new testing of limits phase of our daughter's life. I'm not used to being ignored so easily. But the deprivation of the toys seems to have an effect. I'll keep you posted.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Weekend at Barry's

There has been so much talk, even by people who get paid A LOT of money for their opinions that while Obama might have a good February, Hillary had her firewall in Texas & Ohio on March 4th. This is her 2nd or 3rd firewall. Even Rudy only had one.

What they never mentioned that this race, which has not lacked for drama, has lacked one important ingredient: momentum. Neither candidate has been able to put together a string of victories that would create a dynamic change.

This weekend may be the beginning of that change. If Tuesday goes like the polls are saying, Obama will have run off a string of 8 wins in a row, with Hawaii & Wisconsin to come. The March 4th voters of Texas & Ohio (and of course Vermont) will see those results as well. Polls taken in those states after Tuesday will be very instructive for both campaigns. Don't expect Hillary to have a double digit lead any more.
Another interesting side story of the weekend is the Rasputin like campaign of Mike Huckabee. He too had a great weekend, and with the obvious shenanigans in Washington State over the missing last 13% of the votes, it will provide an excellent story. Just when we think the GOP race is over and the Democrats are in disarray, an election breaks out and the stories reverse. Strange weekend.

McCain will be the nominee, but these kinds of bumps in the road will not serve him well as he tries to get a jump on beating up the democrats.

Lastly, Bush got in on the action by taking a swipe at Obama today. Got to love that if you're Obama. Not so much if you're Hillary.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Hillary's Millions

I have no problem with a candidate spending their own money on their campaign. It's their money after all all.

But think about this. Bill and Hillary Clinton are rich because Bill was the President for 8 years and in the wake of that he has been able to rack up huge fees for speaking and book writing. Hillary has written several books that, if she were not a first lady, would never have sold (for a comparison, please see how many copies Barack Obama's book sold before he got into the Senate).

This has the potential to look like is that the Clintons are using the money they made from being President and First lady to buy the Presidency a second time. That is why the loan to the campaign is a big deal. It becomes circular. Using the power of the Presidency to attain more Presidential power.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

CNN has the rookie team on

They have pundits on discussing Super Tuesday who have never been seen outside of cable access. Never seen any of them.

Well, to be fair, it is 2:30AM

Friday, February 01, 2008

Obama makes a play for the Golden State

This my theory about tonight's debate. Perhaps it is a happy accident, but I bet not.

Obama has made the decision that if he wins California then he will win Super Tuesday. He will likely win most of the south and perhaps Missouri, Idaho & if he is really lucky, Connecticut. (Massachusetts is probably out of reach).

What is the biggest prize on Tuesday? California. Obama made a play for the Golden State tonight in a big way. His team is aware that whoever wins there will control the narrative going forward. The clock is running out for Obama but he made his case to California voters explicitly and in code.

My prediction: whoever wins California will be the nominee.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

We aren't in Kansas Anymore (hint: We are in LA)

This is one of those normal undecided voter groups commenting on the debate with doofus Frank Luntz.

But it goes all wacky at exactly the 2:27 mark: This is totally worth a moment of your time on this planet.

Hint: Ministry of silly analysis.

OK Time for some father daughter posts

Today, Grace and I were working on a few puzzles together. Occasionally I would give her a high five if she finished one. My version of encouragement.

After putting one especially difficult piece together, she turned to me and said, "Daddy can I have a five?"

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

In Her Own Words

As Primary day approaches, here is a short film to remind you of a few things about the run up to the Iraq War.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Live from Florida...It's Morning Joe!

Thw MSNBC road show is in Florida today, where they are apparently holding a pretty important Republican Primary.

The first half hour, the closest they got to mentioning the GOP was some mention of Joe Lieberman. All the oxygen is being taken up by the other party, and another former President. And today it is being taken up by the senior senator from my neighboring state.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Just a question

If Bill Clinton is supposedly just one of those supportive spouses of the candidates, then why are they showing his speech on all the news networks right now?

Just askin'.

plus ca change

Tonight I popped into the hotel bar for a quick nighcap.

Within 30 seconds a 30ish guy next to me ordered 3 Jaegermeisters mixed with Red Bull.

He made his friends wait until they all had their drinks, as it was important to bond while shooting the cocktail.

It's good to be here!

Friday, January 25, 2008

Ahh, I remember California

Sitting on a Southwest jet in Phoenix a few hours ago, it quickly became clear my flight was headed for Los Angeles. As the new passengers boarded, I counted no less than three women with seriously obvious boob jobs. I am a loooong way from upstate New York.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Just watch it.

Please, take a few minutes out of your life and watch this speech. If you are not moved, I will give you your money back.

There is a reason Dr. King is honored with a holiday. And this speech is the direct heir to his legacy. And the reason I say this is something Obama would never dream of bringing up. Dr. King, in August 1963, spoke:

"I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of "interposition" and "nullification" -- one day right there in Alabama little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers."

Obama is the living example of that speech. He is that little black boy and that little white boy as one. And by challenging both races so directly, he is examining his own legacy. And while it is complicated it is ultimately transcendent . He may not win this battle against the Clinton political machine, but he will live to fight another day.

The Big Picture about Last night

This is my theory and I stand by it.

Several weeks ago, Hillary's campaign made the obvious choice of injecting race in to this campaign.

Yesterday morning, Senator Obama made a conscious decision to inject gender into this race. By tying Hillary so tightly to Bill he is attempting to show the electorate that she is not able to stand on her own. THEY are running for a third term. She is not "man" enough (sorry, no other analogy can fit here) to win this fair and square. He is extremely subtly trying to show that she is not a self made woman. Unfortunately for him, it will probably be too subtle for the electorate. Right now it seems like he is just screaming sour grapes. But if you watch the coverage of Bill Clinton today, he has clearly placed his wagging fingers in his pocket and is in smily mode. Obama is attempting to show the voters that if she can't control her own house, then he will.

The pundits are missing the big picture.
Race, meet gender

Last night's fireworks

I don't think I have ever seen that much hostility in a Presidential debate in my life. There were moments where I felt like I did the first time I saw Jaws.

Obama's weakness last night is that when he would make a charge, Clinton would simply ignore it, but Obama took the time to refute the arguments the others were making.

That said, I do think that people were wondering if he could fight back and I think he did answer that charge obviously.
I also think that Bill Clinton will start to be somewhat more careful about his extemporaneous comments on the trail this week. Obama is essentially asking America if they are ready for a 3rd Clinton term, because that is what we are in store for, minus the blow jobs. It is clearly a risk, as Bill is still very popular within the Democratic Party. But we all know that with Good Bill, we also get Bad Bill. He is tying the two of them together to show us what we are in for.

I need a little Help here

After seeing this, I need to know why my vote counts the same as hers.
Not safe for work.
This woman is drunk I think.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Manning goes to the Superbowl!

No, not that one.

Frederick of Hollywood

Just saw a moment or two of Fred Thompson's concession speech.

I'll say this: The main stream press shorthand on Fred was that he was lazy and a
halfhearted campaigner. I thought they tagged him with that awfully early and it
was once again just the press corps themselves being lazy with their stock ideas.
Well, in this case they got it dead right. When I can find his speech on line I will post it.
Bizarre would be an understatement. He really was a lousy candidate. I imagine
he will drop out in the next day or so and throw his support to McCain. That will
finish off Huckabee for good. I see this being a battle between McCain & Romney
now. Bonus: Fred's implosion makes Mary Matalin look even worse.

Full disclosure: I worked with Fred Thompson on several occasions and always found him to be alert and prepared, never lazy.

Here it is in some of its weird glory:

Friday, January 18, 2008

RSS Feed now available

I'm not exactly sure what use it will be for you but my good friend Bill insisted I needed it and he's a lot smarter than I am. I think it is a way to let you know when I post new stuff. Click that orange & white button on the right.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Best Video Ever

Click to see the crazy! He reminds me of that character from Magnolia.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Best. side effects. ever

I just saw an ad for a drug called Mirarpex.

First off, it was for my favorite malady in the history of mankind, Restless Leg Syndrome.

Apparently, a possible side effect of this drug is an increased interest in gambling. Also increased sex drive.

As far as I am concerned, these are not side effects. My leg feels funny.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Local Politics

I received a robocall this week from my US Congresswoman about a town hall meeting today on the subject of property taxes. As you can probably tell, I have a interest in politics, so I went.

As someone who voted for Ms. Gillibrand, it seemed to me that this meeting was really just a chance for her to show her face in the area and get some of her views on the table. Clearly a US Congressperson has very little to do with property taxes and she admitted as much. Basically she spoke for about 10-15 minutes, introduced a couple of "tax experts" and then let the voters complain, some more eloquently than others. And then it was over.

The most interesting moment of the whole day was before the meeting even began. I arrived a little early and sat in the back row. An old timer who needed a bath sat next to me right away and started jawing.

Soon enough he said to me, "See that woman over there."
"Yes I do."
"She's not a woman. She's a man."

Sure enough, my smelly seatmate was correct. The 65 ish year old cross dresser was not trying too hard. Just a Reddish brown wig and some Jackie O glasses. He sat next down next to my new friend and it was clear they knew each other as they began chatting about some engine work Jackie O had done recently. I found the whole thing sort of comforting. Here was an old codger who was certainly amused by Jackie O but clearly had a friendly relationship with him. Progress in tolerance can be measured in the strangest ways.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Crazy like a Rudy

For months now, the Rudy Giuliani primary strategy of ignoring the early states of Iowa, NH, Michigan, & South Carolina to concentrate on Florida & the Super Tuesday states has been described as both "risky" & "crazy."

But what no one seems to have mentioned is that, at least to me, is that this high risk/high reward strategy is a direct window onto his judgement. And to me this does not paint a flattering portrait of a possible Rudy presidency. Would he continue to govern as he ran as a candidate, pursuing risky policies? Current observation would tend to say yes.

It is not just Bernie Kerik who is a judgement problem for Rudy. His whole election strategy is one giant hand of blackjack and to me that is extremely frightening. We are getting an idea of how these candidates would govern and Rudy is no exception.

Here's a link to TPM and their discussion of Rudy. My thoughts were graciously added to the discussion by Mr. Marshall.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Ignoring recent history

In the wake of John McCain's new Hampshire victory last night, the meme being spread by every single pundit is that the Republican Party always "gives the nomination to the guy who's been around", a la Nixon, Reagan, Dole.

But they seem to have forgotten the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

If they had wanted to give the nomination to the elder statesman (read: the old guy), then their obvious choices were Orrin Hatch or Mr. McCain.

It's that kind of rhetorical shorthand that shows the laziness of most pundits. We'll be seeing more of it this election season no doubt.

That's My Story and I'm Sticking To It

This morning, Chris Matthews was on tv essentially saying that the voters of New Hampshire were racist and they told the pollsters one thing and in the voting booth, they did the opposite. He is invested in this theory because the other one is so thoroughly awful for him.

The other theory is that women voters in NH saw the Hillary debate moment (My feelings are hurt!) and her teary moment and realized the boys (Chris Matthews was absolutely leading the charge) were ganging up on her and had a solidarity epiphany moment and swung back to her in the last 24 hours.

I think that is the likeliest outcome. The men who were polled voted as they said they would. It was women who were the big jump from the pre election polls and the exit polling.

So, if Tweety is correct, then only the women of New Hampshire are closet racists.

Nice try buddy.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

NBC Interview with Obama

Say what you want about this man, but he is comfortable in his own skin.

Monday, January 07, 2008

Obama's Iowa Speech - Great stuff

This is my first try at embedding some video. Let's see how we do.

As Staples says, That was easy.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008